Is it time to start worrying yet?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Aug. 7th became the second major forecast group this week to revise its preseason predictions, and warn that we may be heading into a significantly more active hurricane season than normal.
 Meteorologist William Gray, long the nation's best known hurricane forecaster, earlier this week said there is almost an even money chance of one major hurricane striking the East Coast of the United States before the end of the current hurricane season.
So should residents of the Vero Beach barrier island, finally almost completely recovered from the twin hits of Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne four years ago, be starting to worry?
There's probably no reason to become unduly stressed, according to veteran observers. Not only is the likelihood of landfall for any one location along the coast extremely low, but the accuracy of these predictions has been pretty far off the mark the past couple of years.
Forecasters almost universally predicted more active than normal seasons in both 2006 and 2007, but only one minor storm hit the United States last year and no tropical storms made U.S. landfall in 2006.
Still, with most major forecast groups now upping their predictions, it probably is time to pay attention and if you are not already prepared for hurricane season, it is high time to get prepared.
The probability of landfall for any one location
along the coast is very low
NOAA is now calling for 14 to 18 named storms this season, including seven to 10 hurricanes, with three to six of those being intense with winds greater than 110 mph.
Gray and research partner Philip Klotzbach are predicting that there will be 17 named storms this season, including nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
Those numbers represent a significantly more active season than the average, which sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes with two being major hurricanes.
In his update, Gray said a combination of factors led him to believe there is a 43 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast.
NOAA noted that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season thus far has generated five tropical storms so far due to favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures and lingering effects from La Nina.
The agency said this past month was the third most active July on records that go back to 1886.
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